Services
Four things we are asked to do, for site selection teams, economic development organizations, public agencies, and development finance institutions.
Economic Impact Assessments
What a project actually does to a local economy, and what the host jurisdiction actually collects. Purpose-built regional models rather than borrowed multipliers, including the leakage, phasing and tax detail that headline job counts hide.
- Construction- and operations-phase impact modeling for large capital projects, including data centers and energy infrastructure
- Locally calibrated multipliers, with the structural reasons they differ from published figures made explicit
- Fiscal impact by year — property, income and energy tax revenue, net of commuter and supply-chain leakage
- Independent review of impact claims prepared by developers or other consultants
- Appraisal-stage cost-benefit and net present value analysis for public and donor-financed investment
Macroeconomic Diagnostics
Measurement and modeling for decisions that cannot wait for the next official release, and for questions that need a counterfactual rather than a forecast.
- Nowcasting and high-frequency indicator models for output, inflation and trade
- General equilibrium and DSGE modeling with labor market frictions, calibrated to the economy in question
- Policy simulation: tax and transfer financing, carbon pricing, revenue recycling, fiscal cost
- Supply chain and trade exposure analysis using inter-country input-output data
- State and sub-national macroeconomic analysis
AI Impacts on Labor Markets
Exposure analysis that goes past occupational scoring to ask what actually happens to employment, to earnings, and to the public revenue that depends on both.
- Occupational exposure mapping that separates automation risk from task reorganization
- Regional and sectoral breakdowns built from household labor force microdata
- Fiscal exposure — how much of the tax base sits in the occupations most at risk
- Workforce transition and informalization scenarios, with the financing consequences priced
- Technical briefings and review for organizations forming a position on AI and employment
Survey Design and Analysis
The measurement layer under everything above. Survey data is getting harder to collect and easier to misread, and both problems are addressable.
- Instrument design, sampling and weighting for household and establishment surveys
- Response rate diagnostics and non-response bias assessment
- Panel and longitudinal analysis, including labor market transitions
- Program targeting analysis — whether the households a program is meant to reach are the ones actually enrolled
- Monitoring, evaluation and results frameworks, including completion and results reporting
Most engagements begin with a short scoping conversation about what decision the analysis has to support. Selected work is collected on the portfolio page.
