Portfolio
Selected analysis, with the numbers behind it — on what AI does to jobs and the tax base, measuring an economy in near real time, and whether a project’s promised impact survives a careful look.
37–52%
of construction wages leave the county untaxed
Fiscal impact
Six Questions for a Billion-Dollar Promise
A county model returns multipliers of 1.29–1.63 against a published 1.7 for a proposed data center.
AI & labor
Exposed Twice: AI, Labor, and the Public Purse
Automation-exposed jobs are 19% of employment but 25% of labor tax revenue.
Economic impact
Quantifying the 2021 Texas Freeze from Space
Satellite night lights put Houston’s losses at $7.6–15.8 billion, independent of utility reporting.
Macro modeling
Nowcasting US GDP with Machine Learning
Current-quarter GDP weeks ahead of the official release, unbiased through the 2020 collapse.
~$450
per beneficiary for shock-responsive cash transfers
Social protection · Sierra Leone
Adaptive Social Protection in a Fragile, Climate-Exposed State
Appraisal through M&E, with an NPV range of $129–$4,541 that pinpoints which assumptions matter.
$139M
operation rated Satisfactory
Social protection · Ghana
Social Safety Nets and Jobs in Ghana
Lead author of the completion report: 4 of 5 outcome targets exceeded; 107,574 more people reached during COVID-19.
Published Research
Published research with the IMF, IZA and the World Bank. Much of the labor market analysis on this page rests on household survey microdata, which makes whether those surveys still reach the population a live methodological concern rather than a footnote — the subject of the IMF paper below.
- Nxumalo, M. and Raju, D. (2026). Syrian Refugee Employment in Turkish MSMEs: Employer Experience and Formal Hiring Frictions. IZA Discussion Paper No. 18916.
- Fotopoulou, E., Kejji, L., Klyuev, V. and Nxumalo, M. (2026). Eroding Participation in Labor Force Surveys: Evidence, Drivers and Solutions. IMF Working Paper No. 2026/045.
- Nxumalo, M. (2023). Chapter 6, “Social Protection for Online Gig Workers,” in Working without Borders: The Promise and Peril of Online Gig Work. Washington, DC: World Bank. Core team member.
- Nxumalo, M. and Raju, D. (2022). Shocks and Social Safety Net Program Participation in Ghana: Descriptive Evidence from Linking Climate Risk Maps to Program Beneficiary Rolls. World Bank.
- Nxumalo, M. and Raju, D. (2020). Structural Transformation and Labor Market Performance in Ghana. World Bank Jobs Working Paper No. 55.
Work with us
Economic and fiscal impact assessment, labor market analysis, and macroeconomic modeling for site selection teams, economic development organizations, and public agencies. More of our analysis is on the Insights page.
