Insights
Notes and analysis from Branchlet Group on economic impact, labor markets and AI, and the measurement behind them.
- A Skeptic’s Guide to Economic Impact ClaimsSix questions anyone can ask about the economic promises attached to a big development — and what we learned building the model that produced them.
- Exposed Twice: AI, Labor, and the Public PurseAutomation-exposed jobs are 19% of employment but 25% of labor tax revenue.
- Nowcasting US GDP Growth: A Machine Learning ApproachCurrent-quarter GDP weeks ahead of the official release, unbiased through the 2020 collapse.
- Climate risk and fragility: Building Adaptive Social Protection in Sierra LeoneAppraisal through M&E, with an NPV range of $129–$4,541 that pinpoints which assumptions matter.
- Quantifying the 2021 Texas Freeze with Satellite EconometricsSatellite night lights put Houston’s losses at $7.6–15.8 billion, independent of utility reporting.
