Most economic impact figures are borrowed from somewhere else. We build them from the ground up — for the counties, agencies and institutions that have to defend the number long after the announcement. Branchlet Group LLC works on economic and fiscal impact, labor markets and AI, and the survey measurement both depend on.

Our Approach

Borrowed multipliers travel badly. A figure calibrated on a manufacturing region overstates what construction spending does in a county with no manufacturing base, and the gap never shows up in a headline job count. So we build the model for the place rather than the press release, and we report the range, the leakage, and the assumptions the answer actually rests on.

The same discipline applies to measurement. An independent estimate is worth more than a self-reported one. A program’s targeting should be tested against who is actually enrolled, not who it was designed for. And a survey that no longer reaches the population cannot carry the statistics built on top of it.

Global & Domestic Expertise

Our principal has undertaken both operational and analytical assignments for multilateral development institutions — project appraisals, implementation support, and monitoring and evaluation — alongside applied research published in the World Bank’s Jobs Working Paper series.

We work domestically as well as internationally. In the United States, our analysis covers state, county and metropolitan economies: economic and fiscal impact assessment for large capital projects, energy and carbon policy modeling, and real-time macroeconomic measurement. These are the questions site selection teams, economic development organizations, and federal and state agencies have to answer with numbers that survive review.

Current Focus

A current focus of the practice is the economics of artificial intelligence — what AI does to employment, to the tax base that employment supports, and to the macroeconomic aggregates policymakers steer by.

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